{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c10b45a-71b1-4f6a-b5c9-76ef2c895b5e", "symbol": "OR", "name": "Osisko Gold Ro", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.881, "architecture_energy": 48.747, "architecture_maturity": 30.282, "architecture_confidence": 95.387, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.94, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 7.28, "deceleration": 51.42, "rotation_down": 54.53, "downward_expansion": 80.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.528, 30.866232, 32.990239, 34.733149 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.08, "trend_reference": 37.085804, "distance_from_trend": -0.108014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.920514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.644159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172424, "excess_performance": -0.298049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029064, "read": "Falling" 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27.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002879, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.036164, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.205323, "worst_return": -0.10828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086788, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050149, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.227005, "worst_return": -0.030042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.190144, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.154913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285957, "worst_return": 0.166869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.28, "volume": 5393513, "typical_volume": 5183963.9, "trend": 38.00881, "fair_value": 23.505013, "relative_strength": -26.809071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.131933, "energy": 74.893105, "activity_lines": [ 31.469948, 32.975747, 35.177773, 36.675611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.3, "volume": 5568948, "typical_volume": 5214219.75, "trend": 37.7235, "fair_value": 23.595263, "relative_strength": -27.995503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.959013, "energy": 82.466534, "activity_lines": [ 30.139749, 31.895726, 34.347495, 36.049237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.2, "volume": 4242368, "typical_volume": 5175040.8, "trend": 37.447917, "fair_value": 23.692468, "relative_strength": -25.142055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.925237, "energy": 80.193908, "activity_lines": [ 29.473591, 31.161909, 33.693509, 35.499333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.76, "volume": 5361631, "typical_volume": 5120565.65, "trend": 37.267946, "fair_value": 23.795008, "relative_strength": -24.3849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.660546, "energy": 76.89961, "activity_lines": [ 29.366667, 30.659825, 33.158751, 35.003339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.08, "volume": 5277886, "typical_volume": 4808149.9, "trend": 37.085804, "fair_value": 23.920514, "relative_strength": -18.644159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.880632, "energy": 48.747271, "activity_lines": [ 30.528, 30.866232, 32.990239, 34.733149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }