{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c110582-8542-4b49-ab7e-1baaed1fb970", "symbol": "COLL", "name": "Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.558, "architecture_energy": 38.91, "architecture_maturity": 26.372, "architecture_confidence": 86.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.86, "rotation_up": 19.29, "upward_expansion": 8.57, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 51.65, "downward_expansion": 70.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.46, 34.428, 34.505429, 35.134194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.47, "trend_reference": 37.052667, "distance_from_trend": -0.204646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.719936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.76443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.381012, "excess_performance": -0.568466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4326034, "relative_activity": 1.900439, "balance": 0.738484, "dry_up": 1.031378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1197, "annualized_volatility": 0.471788, "from_high_reference": -0.419729, "from_low_reference": 0.052124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.052667, "fair_value_reference": 33.719936, "structural_low": 28.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008337, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.025648, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.248716, "worst_return": -0.183984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020425, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.014252, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.572732, "worst_return": -0.126257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.196953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.159001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.601922, "worst_return": -0.148427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.152697, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028873, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.479783, "worst_return": -0.188303, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22219, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.241758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029063, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163497, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.89, "volume": 1114993, "typical_volume": 1583157.4, "trend": 23.85, "fair_value": 20.943974, "relative_strength": -8.736793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"fair_value": 33.608526, "relative_strength": -17.004272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.219363, "energy": 10.225682, "activity_lines": [ 35.777333, 35.363636, 34.926238, 35.821591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.39, "volume": 1424686, "typical_volume": 2278084.95, "trend": 37.588333, "fair_value": 33.684808, "relative_strength": -16.933714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.67442, "energy": 7.523687, "activity_lines": [ 35.565333, 35.446, 34.999857, 35.657957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.47, "volume": 4326034, "typical_volume": 2276333.55, "trend": 37.052667, "fair_value": 33.719936, "relative_strength": -33.76443, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.558494, "energy": 38.910499, "activity_lines": [ 33.46, 34.428, 34.505429, 35.134194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }