{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c13dff1-f680-46e2-85b7-f5e763c94283", "symbol": "FIXD", "name": "FIRST TRUST TCW OPPORTUNISTIC FIXED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.783, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.947, "architecture_energy": 49.645, "architecture_maturity": 4.659, "architecture_confidence": 91.653, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.32, "rotation_up": 12.49, "upward_expansion": 10.56, "deceleration": 38.78, "rotation_down": 59.68, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.993215, 43.138084, 43.241862, 43.317791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.08, "trend_reference": 43.437746, "distance_from_trend": -0.008236, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.151494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.260676, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014564, "excess_performance": -0.202017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008236, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046864, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026976, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1626071, "relative_activity": 0.851499, "balance": 1.102197, "dry_up": 0.771759, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013585, "annualized_volatility": 0.048385, "from_high_reference": -0.034748, "from_low_reference": 0.023518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.437746, "fair_value_reference": 41.151494, "structural_low": 42.192838, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001762, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.020089, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.039309, "worst_return": -0.052881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000657, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030185, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.074901, "worst_return": -0.075806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013847, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002977, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.038467, "worst_return": -0.101663, 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43.475389, "fair_value": 41.092124, "relative_strength": -9.520664, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.953648, "energy": 45.534465, "activity_lines": [ 43.142716, 43.263361, 43.308938, 43.383582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.83, "volume": 1563149, "typical_volume": 1901258.65, "trend": 43.454364, "fair_value": 41.120303, "relative_strength": -9.728959, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.400141, "energy": 54.208964, "activity_lines": [ 43.001367, 43.174636, 43.262364, 43.341944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.08, "volume": 1626071, "typical_volume": 1909657.7, "trend": 43.437746, "fair_value": 41.151494, "relative_strength": -13.260676, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.947262, "energy": 49.645169, "activity_lines": [ 42.993215, 43.138084, 43.241862, 43.317791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }