{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c147f9c-e935-44ee-b311-a78254f99a62", "symbol": "FLCE", "name": "FRONTIER ASSET U.S. LARGE CAP EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.148, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.458, "architecture_energy": 62.525, "architecture_maturity": 35.807, "architecture_confidence": 81.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.25, "rotation_up": 58.61, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 61.68, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 9.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.408027, 31.210023, 30.852987, 30.288002 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.1302, "trend_reference": 29.68207, "distance_from_trend": 0.082478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.446256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.081175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105409, "excess_performance": -0.020216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082478, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012856, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.957707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11212, "relative_activity": 0.368232, "balance": 3.957707, "dry_up": 0.537051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01967, "annualized_volatility": 0.127372, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.213376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.68207, "fair_value_reference": 27.446256, "structural_low": 26.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005755, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00788, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005755, "worst_return": 0.005755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"energy": 58.216134, "activity_lines": [ 31.064399, 30.957132, 30.416382, 29.927016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.82, "volume": 8586, "typical_volume": 32044.2, "trend": 29.499328, "fair_value": 27.346237, "relative_strength": -0.782058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.630769, "energy": 52.317334, "activity_lines": [ 30.99679, 30.948899, 30.523585, 30.016285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1639, "volume": 25768, "typical_volume": 31350.15, "trend": 29.583158, "fair_value": 27.39115, "relative_strength": -0.722728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.909621, "energy": 51.413424, "activity_lines": [ 31.0587, 30.995656, 30.650671, 30.123677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.1302, "volume": 11212, "typical_volume": 30448.2, "trend": 29.68207, "fair_value": 27.446256, "relative_strength": -1.081175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.458392, "energy": 62.524895, "activity_lines": [ 31.408027, 31.210023, 30.852987, 30.288002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }