{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c16103e-edf3-42f8-a6bd-db1cd71ce1b0", "symbol": "1140", "name": "Bank Albilad", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.075, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.139, "architecture_energy": 25.855, "architecture_maturity": 43.885, "architecture_confidence": 55.871, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.0, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 14.14, "deceleration": 62.49, "rotation_down": 38.35, "downward_expansion": 64.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.259236, 24.238987, 24.431964, 24.724698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.68, "trend_reference": 25.025062, "distance_from_trend": -0.013789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.032498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.073875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053419, "excess_performance": -0.021589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7784060, "relative_activity": 1.059423, "balance": 0.626943, "dry_up": 0.848485, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029468, "annualized_volatility": 0.182889, "from_high_reference": -0.163267, "from_low_reference": 0.063906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.025062, "fair_value_reference": 27.032498, "structural_low": 23.197533, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.021168, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.009533, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.161491, "worst_return": -0.095471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082636, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.024267, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.262745, "worst_return": -0.06607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099967, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.024734, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.191118, "worst_return": -0.039717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 4099531, "typical_volume": 7229395.0, "trend": 25.004985, "fair_value": 27.05309, "relative_strength": -2.171799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.942286, "energy": 56.134552, "activity_lines": [ 23.994646, 24.168644, 24.446763, 24.745665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.68, "volume": 7784060, "typical_volume": 7347452.55, "trend": 25.025062, "fair_value": 27.032498, "relative_strength": -2.073875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.138962, "energy": 25.854983, "activity_lines": [ 24.259236, 24.238987, 24.431964, 24.724698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }