{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c1848e5-962a-4917-9ebc-392955398acd", "symbol": "VICE", "name": "ADVISORSHARES TRUST VICE ETF USD DIS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.228, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.119, "architecture_energy": 22.264, "architecture_maturity": 55.449, "architecture_confidence": 65.787, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.48, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 65.61, "deceleration": 81.43, "rotation_down": 23.88, "downward_expansion": 13.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.41, 33.458435, 33.301169, 33.065805 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.5414, "trend_reference": 32.839917, "distance_from_trend": 0.021361, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.641608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.720111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011105, "excess_performance": -0.114519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021361, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.688802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3757, "relative_activity": 1.640038, "balance": 1.688802, "dry_up": 1.095905, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022999, "annualized_volatility": 0.119833, "from_high_reference": -0.074661, "from_low_reference": 0.085854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.839917, "fair_value_reference": 30.641608, "structural_low": 31.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.00104, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.008499, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.068605, "worst_return": -0.081513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010281, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.012603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094704, "worst_return": -0.176113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050592, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043417, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1021, "worst_return": -0.087921, "sufficient": true }, { 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-7.752052, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.648771, "energy": 31.270723, "activity_lines": [ 33.470927, 33.445595, 33.201395, 32.981998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.2732, "volume": 3105, "typical_volume": 2202.8, "trend": 32.782537, "fair_value": 30.599014, "relative_strength": -7.728897, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.17203, "energy": 22.515223, "activity_lines": [ 33.378907, 33.430722, 33.240447, 33.016846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.5414, "volume": 3757, "typical_volume": 2290.8, "trend": 32.839917, "fair_value": 30.641608, "relative_strength": -9.720111, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.118722, "energy": 22.264222, "activity_lines": [ 33.41, 33.458435, 33.301169, 33.065805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }