{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c1b355f-887b-401a-a25c-7a4dd7c387cf", "symbol": "1586", "name": "China Fineblanking Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.993, "architecture_energy": 55.162, "architecture_maturity": 89.133, "architecture_confidence": 90.098, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 24.14, "upward_expansion": 9.07, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 82.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.586667, 18.819227, 19.878963, 20.719155 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 22.080249, "distance_from_trend": -0.130445, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.283885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.967363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228916, "excess_performance": -0.670288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321168, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.449674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3497222, "relative_activity": 1.442828, "balance": 1.005969, "dry_up": 1.725851, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066763, "annualized_volatility": 0.244243, "from_high_reference": -0.383628, "from_low_reference": 0.094017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.080249, "fair_value_reference": 28.283885, "structural_low": 17.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.001477, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.512821, "median_excess_return": -0.02591, "regime_survival": 0.717949, "best_return": 0.152174, "worst_return": -0.15493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006647, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.001674, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.148728, "worst_return": -0.121212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009419, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050299, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.046985, "worst_return": -0.10972, 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"relative_strength": -45.42438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.052131, "energy": 71.157059, "activity_lines": [ 18.473333, 19.160408, 20.322606, 21.218865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 987641, "typical_volume": 2321765.65, "trend": 22.453583, "fair_value": 28.360362, "relative_strength": -47.055387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.055553, "energy": 64.849716, "activity_lines": [ 18.32, 18.866636, 20.041142, 20.929064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 3497222, "typical_volume": 2423866.3, "trend": 22.080249, "fair_value": 28.283885, "relative_strength": -44.967363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.992618, "energy": 55.162406, "activity_lines": [ 18.586667, 18.819227, 19.878963, 20.719155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }