{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c1b8b23-877c-4286-9d8c-18d14f415665", "symbol": "300577", "name": "Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.161, "architecture_energy": 18.035, "architecture_maturity": 33.763, "architecture_confidence": 62.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.89, "rotation_up": 42.75, "upward_expansion": 28.18, "deceleration": 38.47, "rotation_down": 19.47, "downward_expansion": 48.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.048667, 17.385273, 17.556309, 18.013621 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.41, "trend_reference": 18.82478, "distance_from_trend": -0.022034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.231113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.634772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149845, "excess_performance": -0.157244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33381117, "relative_activity": 1.97425, "balance": 0.817724, "dry_up": 2.926316, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117158, "annualized_volatility": 0.572087, "from_high_reference": -0.295329, "from_low_reference": 0.24476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.82478, "fair_value_reference": 19.231113, "structural_low": 14.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039762, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.020665, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.137667, "worst_return": -0.148095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.045116, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005821, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.149919, "worst_return": -0.298601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018032, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.094121, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113615, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true 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0.128121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050932, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 15.985332, "volume": 6907011, "typical_volume": 5786828.25, "trend": 15.211896, "fair_value": 19.244354, "relative_strength": 11.116254, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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"activity_lines": [ 17.598667, 17.001844, 17.677603, 18.29695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.18, "volume": 96479615, "typical_volume": 13665739.7, "trend": 19.006452, "fair_value": 19.199058, "relative_strength": -22.140619, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.348146, "energy": 23.740764, "activity_lines": [ 17.402, 16.829537, 17.489235, 18.102592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.129999, "volume": 41556661, "typical_volume": 15486054.75, "trend": 18.91259, "fair_value": 19.215324, "relative_strength": -10.962471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.309693, "energy": 20.412466, "activity_lines": [ 17.79, 17.079091, 17.50543, 18.046046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.41, "volume": 33381117, "typical_volume": 16908254.05, "trend": 18.82478, "fair_value": 19.231113, "relative_strength": -13.634772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.160852, "energy": 18.034569, "activity_lines": [ 18.048667, 17.385273, 17.556309, 18.013621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }