{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2310e0-639a-4a99-8d6c-8ae810a8c5cc", "symbol": "JCT", "name": "Jack Chia Industries (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.232, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.91, "architecture_energy": 36.013, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.052, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.87, "rotation_up": 52.8, "upward_expansion": 79.75, "deceleration": 62.17, "rotation_down": 21.65, "downward_expansion": 4.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.8, 82.659091, 82.091667, 81.503185 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.75, "trend_reference": 80.767347, "distance_from_trend": 0.012166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.776256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10808, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.667174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028765, "excess_performance": -0.16356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10808, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.350877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2100, "relative_activity": 1.489362, "balance": 1.350877, "dry_up": 1.41844, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021171, "annualized_volatility": 0.111161, "from_high_reference": -0.036962, "from_low_reference": 0.111198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.767347, "fair_value_reference": 73.776256, "structural_low": 77.577812, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.003135, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.00015, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.084967, "worst_return": -0.042424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008073, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.032481, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.036036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022132, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.027698, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.088235, "worst_return": -0.036036, "sufficient": 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51.611934, "activity_lines": [ 82.416667, 82.109091, 81.394997, 80.883004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.75, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 2180.0, "trend": 80.406381, "fair_value": 73.480924, "relative_strength": -11.849467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.487215, "energy": 45.188805, "activity_lines": [ 82.633333, 82.286364, 81.585611, 81.043807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.0, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1995.0, "trend": 80.532101, "fair_value": 73.58216, "relative_strength": -11.515229, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.965206, "energy": 44.838625, "activity_lines": [ 82.783333, 82.45, 81.782143, 81.211137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.0, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1385.0, "trend": 80.691154, "fair_value": 73.688452, "relative_strength": -9.112265, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.985795, "energy": 52.001747, "activity_lines": [ 83.233333, 82.777273, 82.055952, 81.434873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.75, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 1410.0, "trend": 80.767347, "fair_value": 73.776256, "relative_strength": -10.667174, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.910451, "energy": 36.013017, "activity_lines": [ 82.8, 82.659091, 82.091667, 81.503185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }