{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2458e3-628d-44b6-a64f-de79100b5064", "symbol": "300615", "name": "XDC Industries (Shenzhen) Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.629, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.382, "architecture_energy": 10.505, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.913, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.24, "rotation_up": 30.5, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 28.12, "downward_expansion": 69.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.603334, 10.853455, 11.487234, 12.147415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.190001, "trend_reference": 12.928314, "distance_from_trend": 0.32964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.959351, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.894031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.209627, "excess_performance": 0.202227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.32964, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068192, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.23894, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.378497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.209627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.464854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103540486, "relative_activity": 3.49915, "balance": 0.464854, "dry_up": 1.307452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10055, "annualized_volatility": 1.036362, "from_high_reference": -0.074313, "from_low_reference": 1.192602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.928314, "fair_value_reference": 12.959351, "structural_low": 7.84, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.040671, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144895, "worst_return": -0.409594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00933, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.16319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027714, "worst_return": -0.223862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.272824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114065, "worst_return": -0.220172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -85.881787, "energy": 92.823767, "activity_lines": [ 9.628, 10.386545, 11.729297, 12.423445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.69, "volume": 28322827, "typical_volume": 32333516.25, "trend": 12.95126, "fair_value": 12.995372, "relative_strength": -35.857211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.194481, "energy": 88.573491, "activity_lines": [ 9.212667, 9.924727, 11.351038, 12.138881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.69, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27754727.25, "trend": 12.796459, "fair_value": 12.945896, "relative_strength": -34.137561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.055141, "energy": 86.321676, "activity_lines": [ 8.938667, 9.566727, 10.999449, 11.863961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.190001, "volume": 103540486, "typical_volume": 29590179.05, "trend": 12.928314, "fair_value": 12.959351, "relative_strength": 23.894031, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.381978, "energy": 10.505442, "activity_lines": [ 11.603334, 10.853455, 11.487234, 12.147415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }