{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c245afc-12cd-49cb-bcc0-67bd14c886f7", "symbol": "JPSE", "name": "JP MORGAN ETF TRUST DIVERSIFIED RETURN US SMALL CAP EQUITY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.58, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.621, "architecture_energy": 52.601, "architecture_maturity": 64.653, "architecture_confidence": 61.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 49.97, "upward_expansion": 78.72, "deceleration": 69.3, "rotation_down": 26.92, "downward_expansion": 7.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.830933, 59.661189, 58.796111, 57.643108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.74, "trend_reference": 56.275534, "distance_from_trend": 0.079332, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.566026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304384, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.460337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107827, "excess_performance": -0.017798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079332, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304384, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011103, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014603, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107827, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66624, "relative_activity": 0.466813, "balance": 0.584783, "dry_up": 0.62864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025455, "annualized_volatility": 0.132812, "from_high_reference": -0.006055, "from_low_reference": 0.323419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.275534, "fair_value_reference": 46.566026, "structural_low": 50.550152, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.008573, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.006782, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.078323, "worst_return": -0.074667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02541, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.028043, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.11934, "worst_return": -0.075001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075916, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.039502, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.194866, "worst_return": -0.019037, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 55.430917, "fair_value": 46.194739, "relative_strength": 4.260229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.945203, "energy": 68.108626, "activity_lines": [ 59.657805, 59.152966, 57.961905, 56.860703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.3, "volume": 109137, "typical_volume": 150625.4, "trend": 55.704987, "fair_value": 46.313711, "relative_strength": 3.984027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.873627, "energy": 52.308094, "activity_lines": [ 59.558133, 59.286585, 58.230015, 57.110321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.224, "volume": 60552, "typical_volume": 143202.9, "trend": 56.000818, "fair_value": 46.433481, "relative_strength": 2.547807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.464944, "energy": 46.185442, "activity_lines": [ 59.416667, 59.352733, 58.458913, 57.337354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.74, "volume": 66624, "typical_volume": 142721.1, "trend": 56.275534, "fair_value": 46.566026, "relative_strength": 1.460337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.621332, "energy": 52.601103, "activity_lines": [ 59.830933, 59.661189, 58.796111, 57.643108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }