{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2780be-ee34-441a-b747-a85cd4232a76", "symbol": "UBF6", "name": "UBS CMCI Commodity Carry ex-Agriculture SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.745, "architecture_energy": 69.647, "architecture_maturity": 74.177, "architecture_confidence": 70.258, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.27, "rotation_up": 9.32, "upward_expansion": 22.32, "deceleration": 40.96, "rotation_down": 75.9, "downward_expansion": 81.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.11, 91.229454, 93.231476, 92.878387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 84.440002, "trend_reference": 94.054, "distance_from_trend": -0.102218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.813718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.289308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.622764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101702, "excess_performance": -0.192172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.289308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101702, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.169232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3779, "relative_activity": 2.11383, "balance": 0.169232, "dry_up": 2.077751, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049903, "annualized_volatility": 0.445261, "from_high_reference": -0.34502, "from_low_reference": 0.114572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.054, "fair_value_reference": 118.813718, "structural_low": 75.760002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.006537, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.028762, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.121792, "worst_return": -0.236869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01831, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.097103, "worst_return": -0.227332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.080307, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117999, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.008311, "worst_return": -0.152304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.235567, "energy": 18.727888, "activity_lines": [ 93.600665, 94.336362, 94.484809, 94.033183 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 88.860001, "volume": 8722, "typical_volume": 1717.5, "trend": 95.165333, "fair_value": 119.005256, "relative_strength": -21.772297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.121704, "energy": 38.289258, "activity_lines": [ 92.037332, 93.07909, 94.053238, 93.570344 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 84.440002, "volume": 3779, "typical_volume": 1787.75, "trend": 94.054, "fair_value": 118.813718, "relative_strength": -23.622764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.745109, "energy": 69.647208, "activity_lines": [ 89.11, 91.229454, 93.231476, 92.878387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }