{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c291682-b326-4c31-a40b-e72b3e044a12", "symbol": "ENGUS", "name": "BNP Paribas EASY ECPI Global ESG Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.291, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.679, "architecture_energy": 28.472, "architecture_maturity": 61.046, "architecture_confidence": 81.711, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.9, "rotation_up": 32.81, "upward_expansion": 58.96, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 31.61, "downward_expansion": 18.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.1403, 16.12776, 16.150896, 16.055425 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.3638, "trend_reference": 15.886223, "distance_from_trend": 0.030062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.778246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.08591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062529, "excess_performance": 0.009218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010859, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350, "relative_activity": 0.309324, "balance": 0.580901, "dry_up": 0.735749, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010168, "annualized_volatility": 0.128817, "from_high_reference": -0.016598, "from_low_reference": 0.227159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.886223, "fair_value_reference": 12.778246, "structural_low": 14.9814, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.028026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01836, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.062181, "worst_return": -0.006129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.069428, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000896, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.069428, "worst_return": 0.069428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.219199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010036, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-24", "close": 10.0754, "volume": 0, 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16.06484, 15.86812 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.172501, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 881.65, "trend": 15.60179, "fair_value": 12.631745, "relative_strength": 5.19893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.210327, "energy": 48.073712, "activity_lines": [ 16.229907, 16.26922, 16.085705, 15.908474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.2012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 863.2, "trend": 15.65751, "fair_value": 12.657799, "relative_strength": 3.611352, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.187482, "energy": 32.604404, "activity_lines": [ 16.197354, 16.258833, 16.105628, 15.947145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.9674, "volume": 5994, "typical_volume": 1154.9, "trend": 15.69955, "fair_value": 12.681782, "relative_strength": 3.896106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.842319, "energy": 32.024261, "activity_lines": [ 16.110494, 16.205607, 16.102627, 15.967138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.9674, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1092.75, "trend": 15.74159, "fair_value": 12.705419, "relative_strength": 3.610404, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.23122, "energy": 28.319349, "activity_lines": [ 16.05518, 16.154636, 16.100409, 15.984419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.9919, "volume": 1228, "typical_volume": 1099.5, "trend": 15.784447, "fair_value": 12.728894, "relative_strength": 3.131242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.117051, "energy": 27.291152, "activity_lines": [ 16.020413, 16.110375, 16.1031, 16.000568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1019, "volume": 1752, "typical_volume": 1168.85, "trend": 15.83097, "fair_value": 12.752816, "relative_strength": 2.031928, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.817762, "energy": 21.438117, "activity_lines": [ 16.034353, 16.092962, 16.11554, 16.021049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.3638, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 1131.5, "trend": 15.886223, "fair_value": 12.778246, "relative_strength": 1.08591, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.679159, "energy": 28.47191, "activity_lines": [ 16.1403, 16.12776, 16.150896, 16.055425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }