{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2b90c3-5699-4edc-a774-268f117c7fef", "symbol": "MLN", "name": "VANECK LONG MUNI ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.945, "architecture_energy": 15.933, "architecture_maturity": 26.973, "architecture_confidence": 72.367, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.69, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 24.76, "deceleration": 72.75, "rotation_down": 51.88, "downward_expansion": 30.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.430431, 17.501749, 17.495822, 17.473316 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.505, "trend_reference": 17.438872, "distance_from_trend": 0.003792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.715842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.739799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009533, "excess_performance": -0.116092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003792, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 851499, "relative_activity": 0.763587, "balance": 0.904347, "dry_up": 0.786109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010633, "annualized_volatility": 0.054631, "from_high_reference": -0.013161, "from_low_reference": 0.0799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.438872, "fair_value_reference": 16.715842, "structural_low": 17.067516, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005157, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.007879, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.042966, "worst_return": -0.052931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004956, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006648, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.054534, "worst_return": -0.108256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024126, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072511, "worst_return": -0.033122, "sufficient": false 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17.517041, 17.545065, 17.505985, 17.476714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.309935, "volume": 879820, "typical_volume": 1240243.0, "trend": 17.433598, "fair_value": 16.705027, "relative_strength": -7.838124, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.974645, "energy": 18.287639, "activity_lines": [ 17.428856, 17.506518, 17.491402, 17.468709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.505, "volume": 851499, "typical_volume": 1115130.25, "trend": 17.438872, "fair_value": 16.715842, "relative_strength": -9.739799, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.944978, "energy": 15.933146, "activity_lines": [ 17.430431, 17.501749, 17.495822, 17.473316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }