{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2c50e6-5773-4fe7-9dbb-3bdb63d0f234", "symbol": "AZA", "name": "IPC Corporation Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.75, "architecture_energy": 42.666, "architecture_maturity": 35.933, "architecture_confidence": 89.736, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.34, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 9.12, "deceleration": 42.69, "rotation_down": 54.62, "downward_expansion": 80.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.138267, 0.139836, 0.143933, 0.147475 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.139, "trend_reference": 0.1543, "distance_from_trend": -0.099157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.124571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.165928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244565, "excess_performance": -0.3994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055306, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.966851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.149981, "balance": 1.966851, "dry_up": 0.978628, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080243, "annualized_volatility": 0.406249, "from_high_reference": -0.279793, "from_low_reference": 0.130081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1543, "fair_value_reference": 0.124571, "structural_low": 0.134, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.020891, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.010442, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.580247, "worst_return": -0.263636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062326, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.382979, "worst_return": -0.115385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.114286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.168814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.620253, "worst_return": -0.268519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031002, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.829787, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041958, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097403, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.122, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 131645.0, "trend": 0.107233, "fair_value": 0.132417, "relative_strength": 14.469207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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0.142533, 0.144691, 0.147629, 0.152297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.14, "volume": 17100, "typical_volume": 37965.0, "trend": 0.157533, "fair_value": 0.124532, "relative_strength": -21.962674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.868601, "energy": 32.529026, "activity_lines": [ 0.142133, 0.143327, 0.146686, 0.151103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.136, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 19350.0, "trend": 0.156467, "fair_value": 0.124571, "relative_strength": -24.98931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.167162, "energy": 34.646397, "activity_lines": [ 0.140267, 0.141491, 0.145533, 0.149714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.138, "volume": 22900, "typical_volume": 18260.0, "trend": 0.155233, "fair_value": 0.124622, "relative_strength": -24.135312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.221256, "energy": 37.644554, "activity_lines": [ 0.139133, 0.140436, 0.144648, 0.148523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.139, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 13335.0, "trend": 0.1543, "fair_value": 0.124571, "relative_strength": -24.165928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.74963, "energy": 42.665753, "activity_lines": [ 0.138267, 0.139836, 0.143933, 0.147475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }