{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c2cdb4c-c5fc-456e-9351-c48f528ebf23", "symbol": "ALUPG", "name": "UPERGY Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.346, "architecture_energy": 14.558, "architecture_maturity": 79.039, "architecture_confidence": 60.277, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.86, "rotation_up": 32.07, "upward_expansion": 25.73, "deceleration": 49.29, "rotation_down": 21.11, "downward_expansion": 47.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.712, 1.688564, 1.680017, 1.719038 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.695, "trend_reference": 1.795496, "distance_from_trend": -0.055971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.886652, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.322263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192857, "excess_performance": -0.246169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053635, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.524955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347, "relative_activity": 0.106206, "balance": 5.524955, "dry_up": 0.391767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052485, "annualized_volatility": 0.284567, "from_high_reference": -0.407343, "from_low_reference": 0.107843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.795496, "fair_value_reference": 1.886652, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.032586, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": 0.003167, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.490446, "worst_return": -0.198113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.014732, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.559748, "worst_return": -0.276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.052328, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.144654, "worst_return": -0.400662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.10989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, 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"fair_value": 1.908162, "relative_strength": -9.001614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.904974, "energy": 35.220265, "activity_lines": [ 1.653573, 1.650167, 1.682872, 1.752929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.73, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3783.25, "trend": 1.85483, "fair_value": 1.902398, "relative_strength": -8.943821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.458952, "energy": 26.107019, "activity_lines": [ 1.682847, 1.664392, 1.682706, 1.743263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.685, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3589.35, "trend": 1.831663, "fair_value": 1.896594, "relative_strength": -11.64479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.702444, "energy": 20.323528, "activity_lines": [ 1.69, 1.669534, 1.678873, 1.732306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 4373, "typical_volume": 3640.95, "trend": 1.808996, "fair_value": 1.892017, "relative_strength": -10.146076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.433835, "energy": 17.956852, "activity_lines": [ 1.712, 1.683898, 1.681302, 1.726392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.695, "volume": 347, "typical_volume": 3267.25, "trend": 1.795496, "fair_value": 1.886652, "relative_strength": -14.322263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.346052, "energy": 14.557646, "activity_lines": [ 1.712, 1.688564, 1.680017, 1.719038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }