{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c3080ee-bd37-4d80-83c4-d457067cbdd9", "symbol": "M2M", "name": "Mt Malcolm Mines NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.477, "architecture_energy": 60.72, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.874, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.08, "rotation_up": 20.02, "upward_expansion": 10.83, "deceleration": 44.2, "rotation_down": 61.28, "downward_expansion": 84.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006267, 0.006727, 0.006952, 0.007991 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.009833, "distance_from_trend": -0.389831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.022194, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.729654, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -56.639022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.6, "excess_performance": -0.663706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.389831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.729654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.56639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.6, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2299034, "relative_activity": 0.714738, "balance": 0.909173, "dry_up": 0.495857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205128, "annualized_volatility": 1.108495, "from_high_reference": -0.785714, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009833, "fair_value_reference": 0.022194, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.044007, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 1.111111, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080298, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.95, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.157206, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.47619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.289474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, 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-44.774909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.986776, "energy": 27.107932, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.007055, 0.007762, 0.009078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3265476, "typical_volume": 3996672.85, "trend": 0.0106, "fair_value": 0.022636, "relative_strength": -50.63644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.807118, "energy": 26.121232, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.007127, 0.007586, 0.008834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 410000, "typical_volume": 3614505.45, "trend": 0.010367, "fair_value": 0.022495, "relative_strength": -56.426811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.119731, "energy": 33.776539, "activity_lines": [ 0.007067, 0.007, 0.007348, 0.008538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 405408, "typical_volume": 3417429.1, "trend": 0.0101, "fair_value": 0.022341, "relative_strength": -56.357106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.787725, "energy": 47.057869, "activity_lines": [ 0.0066, 0.006855, 0.007138, 0.008256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2299034, "typical_volume": 3216610.15, "trend": 0.009833, "fair_value": 0.022194, "relative_strength": -56.639022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.47697, "energy": 60.720449, "activity_lines": [ 0.006267, 0.006727, 0.006952, 0.007991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }