{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c38a2cc-9fb3-4078-9133-91ee2e43f081", "symbol": "KME", "name": "KME Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.695, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.884, "architecture_energy": 4.681, "architecture_maturity": 12.017, "architecture_confidence": 56.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.59, "rotation_up": 30.02, "upward_expansion": 34.46, "deceleration": 49.49, "rotation_down": 36.02, "downward_expansion": 20.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.883333, 0.882, 0.8854, 0.883243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.885, "trend_reference": 0.883, "distance_from_trend": 0.002265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.916545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.69031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016667, "excess_performance": -0.187558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002265, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.145267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89034, "relative_activity": 1.195003, "balance": 4.145267, "dry_up": 1.024015, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033464, "annualized_volatility": 0.163434, "from_high_reference": -0.046336, "from_low_reference": 0.103491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.883, "fair_value_reference": 0.916545, "structural_low": 0.802, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.003279, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.016482, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.272395, "worst_return": -0.043033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001099, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055675, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.516224, "worst_return": -0.071721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001639, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.124108, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.781481, "worst_return": -0.033333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.232274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.182726, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.82037, "worst_return": -0.055319, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.042623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006834, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"typical_volume": 66426.1, "trend": 0.883467, "fair_value": 0.919231, "relative_strength": -15.669621, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.666998, "energy": 20.174416, "activity_lines": [ 0.875667, 0.884, 0.884005, 0.882983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.895, "volume": 109868, "typical_volume": 70776.6, "trend": 0.8843, "fair_value": 0.918686, "relative_strength": -12.072887, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.712742, "energy": 9.675724, "activity_lines": [ 0.880667, 0.885182, 0.8855, 0.883727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.88, "volume": 55546, "typical_volume": 70975.1, "trend": 0.884433, "fair_value": 0.917962, "relative_strength": -12.998078, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.07386, "energy": 10.529798, "activity_lines": [ 0.881333, 0.883455, 0.885457, 0.883449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 50730, "typical_volume": 72179.35, "trend": 0.883767, "fair_value": 0.917224, "relative_strength": -13.13206, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.143069, "energy": 7.31978, "activity_lines": [ 0.881667, 0.882091, 0.885281, 0.883163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.885, "volume": 89034, "typical_volume": 74505.25, "trend": 0.883, "fair_value": 0.916545, "relative_strength": -14.69031, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.884187, "energy": 4.68088, "activity_lines": [ 0.883333, 0.882, 0.8854, 0.883243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }