{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c38c076-c22d-47c6-a2de-e6a25139724d", "symbol": "ANZ", "name": "ANZ Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.26, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.09, "architecture_energy": 43.792, "architecture_maturity": 12.745, "architecture_confidence": 81.499, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.28, "rotation_up": 65.49, "upward_expansion": 48.82, "deceleration": 21.6, "rotation_down": 14.81, "downward_expansion": 21.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.443333, 43.732182, 43.360647, 43.538767 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.169998, "trend_reference": 43.671666, "distance_from_trend": 0.034309, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.651349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.06407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05205, "excess_performance": 0.023777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043419, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050641, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.248988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66901, "relative_activity": 1.439154, "balance": 2.248988, "dry_up": 1.176754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033685, "annualized_volatility": 0.22515, "from_high_reference": -0.042516, "from_low_reference": 0.405776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.671666, "fair_value_reference": 32.651349, "structural_low": 41.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006624, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.023288, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089057, "worst_return": -0.163055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010417, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.032686, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.178515, "worst_return": -0.073416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023096, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069879, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.066787, "worst_return": -0.01081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 17.35725, "activity_lines": [ 43.071334, 42.694182, 42.993833, 43.303694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.900002, "volume": 41734, "typical_volume": 45304.85, "trend": 43.403479, "fair_value": 32.373056, "relative_strength": 3.453036, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.181752, "energy": 14.864952, "activity_lines": [ 43.396001, 42.930546, 43.047676, 43.341982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.799999, "volume": 75113, "typical_volume": 45138.5, "trend": 43.516355, "fair_value": 32.511589, "relative_strength": 5.644674, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.325569, "energy": 25.553545, "activity_lines": [ 43.919334, 43.310546, 43.187547, 43.43208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.169998, "volume": 66901, "typical_volume": 46486.35, "trend": 43.671666, "fair_value": 32.651349, "relative_strength": 5.06407, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.089628, "energy": 43.792305, "activity_lines": [ 44.443333, 43.732182, 43.360647, 43.538767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }