{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c39c6af-7628-4e1e-8ce7-d6fca79197d2", "symbol": "600724", "name": "Ningbo Fuda Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.557, "architecture_energy": 81.028, "architecture_maturity": 19.935, "architecture_confidence": 87.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.66, "rotation_up": 10.08, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 73.97, "downward_expansion": 93.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.983333, 5.235467, 5.914107, 6.144392 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 6.356045, "distance_from_trend": -0.199188, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.730663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.160378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258908, "excess_performance": -0.215704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006947, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.700393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.470038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.576175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45482515, "relative_activity": 0.853345, "balance": 0.576175, "dry_up": 0.910253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111492, "annualized_volatility": 0.464737, "from_high_reference": -0.404342, "from_low_reference": 0.136161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.356045, "fair_value_reference": 4.730663, "structural_low": 4.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019284, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.004484, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.225064, "worst_return": -0.108108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082369, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.078705, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.471233, "worst_return": -0.058228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.216938, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.392948, "worst_return": 0.03038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.204765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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63.685739, "activity_lines": [ 5.846712, 6.371263, 6.61828, 6.593846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.43, "volume": 54563602, "typical_volume": 56622500.15, "trend": 6.432397, "fair_value": 4.696101, "relative_strength": -7.793334, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.162709, "energy": 71.448387, "activity_lines": [ 5.638, 6.128588, 6.50095, 6.528934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.87, "volume": 50274593, "typical_volume": 56142059.25, "trend": 6.42253, "fair_value": 4.705549, "relative_strength": -12.150235, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.694049, "energy": 78.195349, "activity_lines": [ 5.314, 5.811139, 6.336239, 6.428134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.71, "volume": 56921601, "typical_volume": 54921788.9, "trend": 6.399082, "fair_value": 4.712785, "relative_strength": -16.062265, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.223688, "energy": 89.08751, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 5.522038, 6.166005, 6.317648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 41383900, "typical_volume": 53690867.45, "trend": 6.376393, "fair_value": 4.721643, "relative_strength": -11.287847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.76837, "energy": 81.424727, "activity_lines": [ 4.987333, 5.349439, 6.032151, 6.227385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 45482515, "typical_volume": 53299068.2, "trend": 6.356045, "fair_value": 4.730663, "relative_strength": -12.160378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.557405, "energy": 81.02759, "activity_lines": [ 4.983333, 5.235467, 5.914107, 6.144392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }