{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c4d9e42-f9a7-4ab6-910c-c99b0404f6e1", "symbol": "SVE", "name": "Shareholder Value Beteiligungen AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.015, "architecture_energy": 26.783, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.19, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.71, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 16.49, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 39.95, "downward_expansion": 66.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.366667, 71.354545, 71.802381, 72.721505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 70.5, "trend_reference": 74.683333, "distance_from_trend": -0.056014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149321, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.165375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145455, "excess_performance": -0.210094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01091, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045445, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1161, "relative_activity": 1.830364, "balance": 1.248039, "dry_up": 1.221031, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028914, "annualized_volatility": 0.145864, "from_high_reference": -0.233696, "from_low_reference": 0.052239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.683333, "fair_value_reference": 82.875, "structural_low": 67.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.012809, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.016918, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.025424, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.056845, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.071895, "worst_return": -0.172727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107527, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.121289, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.169643, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", 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72.140476, 73.696774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.0, "volume": 1372, "typical_volume": 583.75, "trend": 75.666667, "fair_value": 83.63141, "relative_strength": -12.890247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.70576, "energy": 69.887177, "activity_lines": [ 70.9, 71.572727, 72.033333, 73.439785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.0, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 570.35, "trend": 75.416667, "fair_value": 83.375, "relative_strength": -11.021164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.791687, "energy": 29.366421, "activity_lines": [ 71.933333, 71.909091, 72.154762, 73.332258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.5, "volume": 535, "typical_volume": 588.4, "trend": 75.05, "fair_value": 83.128205, "relative_strength": -16.464779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.634492, "energy": 31.059643, "activity_lines": [ 71.633333, 71.618182, 71.961905, 73.015054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.5, "volume": 1161, "typical_volume": 634.3, "trend": 74.683333, "fair_value": 82.875, "relative_strength": -18.165375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.014796, "energy": 26.782611, "activity_lines": [ 71.366667, 71.354545, 71.802381, 72.721505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }