{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c4f49f7-8382-4a38-ac72-94032b4ab813", "symbol": "BAJAJHIND", "name": "Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.908, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.173, "architecture_energy": 39.562, "architecture_maturity": 4.084, "architecture_confidence": 67.557, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.4, "rotation_up": 16.44, "upward_expansion": 23.02, "deceleration": 51.08, "rotation_down": 61.11, "downward_expansion": 52.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.255333, 17.595091, 18.084762, 17.907355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.57, "trend_reference": 17.551667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.358333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.846637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087252, "excess_performance": 0.130962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41507259, "relative_activity": 1.236906, "balance": 0.88024, "dry_up": 0.723932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067992, "annualized_volatility": 0.29115, "from_high_reference": -0.257082, "from_low_reference": 0.183165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.551667, "fair_value_reference": 26.358333, "structural_low": 14.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033733, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.049589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.093366, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.15768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.214508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.100819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.366534, "worst_return": -0.443752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061566, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080937, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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17.689667, "fair_value": 26.392051, "relative_strength": -8.174569, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.432988, "energy": 10.722354, "activity_lines": [ 18.002667, 18.379273, 18.399191, 18.005376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.379999, "volume": 21624747, "typical_volume": 39436896.2, "trend": 17.653333, "fair_value": 26.382308, "relative_strength": -7.709903, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.135919, "energy": 17.081311, "activity_lines": [ 17.695333, 18.161818, 18.341, 17.985398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 19646551, "typical_volume": 36077596.45, "trend": 17.615333, "fair_value": 26.376154, "relative_strength": -5.334914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.050849, "energy": 31.449121, "activity_lines": [ 17.462, 17.971455, 18.268429, 17.961957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.75, "volume": 14394315, "typical_volume": 33915954.55, "trend": 17.551, "fair_value": 26.378718, "relative_strength": -10.049442, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.278083, "energy": 48.040191, "activity_lines": [ 17.175333, 17.692545, 18.138905, 17.906129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.57, "volume": 41507259, "typical_volume": 33557328.7, "trend": 17.551667, "fair_value": 26.358333, "relative_strength": -5.846637, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.173402, "energy": 39.561715, "activity_lines": [ 17.255333, 17.595091, 18.084762, 17.907355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }