{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c51b624-0f26-48bb-90fd-37f5085b5bf2", "symbol": "001282", "name": "Wuhu Sanlian Forging Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.217, "architecture_energy": 77.048, "architecture_maturity": 35.317, "architecture_confidence": 85.773, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 9.45, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 76.42, "downward_expansion": 93.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.518667, 16.684479, 18.006735, 18.915312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.17, "trend_reference": 19.999052, "distance_from_trend": -0.191462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.634061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.319723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219595, "excess_performance": -0.226994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219595, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23290237, "relative_activity": 1.369574, "balance": 0.583868, "dry_up": 0.997424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138162, "annualized_volatility": 0.652986, "from_high_reference": -0.430629, "from_low_reference": 0.176856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.999052, "fair_value_reference": 17.634061, "structural_low": 13.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058014, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002539, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.087685, "worst_return": -0.203713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 15.44, "volume": 12505171, "typical_volume": 17061386.85, "trend": 20.170719, "fair_value": 17.628826, "relative_strength": -24.469019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.680056, "energy": 81.646149, "activity_lines": [ 15.557333, 16.938558, 18.293028, 19.173422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.17, "volume": 23290237, "typical_volume": 17005459.45, "trend": 19.999052, "fair_value": 17.634061, "relative_strength": -24.319723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.217246, "energy": 77.048303, "activity_lines": [ 15.518667, 16.684479, 18.006735, 18.915312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }