{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c56bae0-697f-4a1f-89dd-ec6d184b2678", "symbol": "002670", "name": "Guosheng Securities Inc", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.889, "architecture_energy": 39.993, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.526, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.38, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 5.23, "deceleration": 60.58, "rotation_down": 43.1, "downward_expansion": 76.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.56, 11.611818, 11.849095, 12.52243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.18, "trend_reference": 13.590333, "distance_from_trend": -0.177356, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.740513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.00535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.318293, "excess_performance": -0.325692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177356, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156696, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.397843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210251586, "relative_activity": 2.306402, "balance": 0.397843, "dry_up": 1.803534, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089721, "annualized_volatility": 0.383494, "from_high_reference": -0.540674, "from_low_reference": 0.029466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.590333, "fair_value_reference": 12.740513, "structural_low": 10.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001057, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.006567, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.324235, "worst_return": -0.13296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005562, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.058461, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.234403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031251, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.490488, "worst_return": -0.267111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 82465199.0, "trend": 13.95, "fair_value": 12.707628, "relative_strength": -31.510826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.730008, "energy": 41.443278, "activity_lines": [ 11.64, 11.591091, 12.028762, 12.809462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 152096661, "typical_volume": 84513689.5, "trend": 13.779, "fair_value": 12.726154, "relative_strength": -24.31836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.827214, "energy": 34.020831, "activity_lines": [ 11.78, 11.687091, 11.974857, 12.690108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.18, "volume": 210251586, "typical_volume": 91160006.15, "trend": 13.590333, "fair_value": 12.740513, "relative_strength": -33.00535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.888597, "energy": 39.993048, "activity_lines": [ 11.56, 11.611818, 11.849095, 12.52243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }