{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c56e144-decb-46d2-bcfc-7ac64efa3729", "symbol": "XL3S", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Financials ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.742, "architecture_energy": 90.45, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.69, "rotation_up": 11.56, "upward_expansion": 21.13, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 82.96, "downward_expansion": 99.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5875, 0.619991, 0.687107, 0.736008 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.5645, "trend_reference": 0.779017, "distance_from_trend": -0.275369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.701995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.66833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.20587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241773, "excess_performance": -0.293008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.66833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.035945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240, "relative_activity": 0.049873, "balance": 0.035945, "dry_up": 0.141202, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08544, "annualized_volatility": 0.423841, "from_high_reference": -0.447652, "from_low_reference": 0.05514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.779017, "fair_value_reference": 1.701995, "structural_low": 0.535, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.053286, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.044185, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.222066, "worst_return": -0.250394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.115281, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.159434, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.338165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.264253, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.342018, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.016812, "worst_return": -0.445406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119376, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160055, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068568, "active": false 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0.775002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.606, "volume": 1667, "typical_volume": 6102.6, "trend": 0.787517, "fair_value": 1.744736, "relative_strength": -29.951013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.708542, "energy": 91.151729, "activity_lines": [ 0.619667, 0.660882, 0.725526, 0.763096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.586, "volume": 642, "typical_volume": 5774.95, "trend": 0.78285, "fair_value": 1.723425, "relative_strength": -32.290159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.465203, "energy": 91.487041, "activity_lines": [ 0.603233, 0.640518, 0.706417, 0.750095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5645, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 4812.25, "trend": 0.779017, "fair_value": 1.701995, "relative_strength": -34.20587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.741597, "energy": 90.450257, "activity_lines": [ 0.5875, 0.619991, 0.687107, 0.736008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }