{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c57d070-e2a3-4600-854c-ab87501cb94e", "symbol": "MTF-F51", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) RUSSELL 2000 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.824, "architecture_energy": 67.33, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 55.87, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.929333, 50.935091, 1058.19919, 1917.800495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.65, "trend_reference": 2918.071333, "distance_from_trend": -0.9823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3597.103462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.682492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988527, "excess_performance": -1.017428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.9823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.269241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.872326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.54543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133540, "relative_activity": 1.04322, "balance": 0.54543, "dry_up": 1.367706, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.410559, "annualized_volatility": 6.311061, "from_high_reference": -0.989651, "from_low_reference": 0.042171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2918.071333, "fair_value_reference": 3597.103462, "structural_low": 49.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014323, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.002895, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.106005, "worst_return": -0.160757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000277, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035613, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.13663, "worst_return": -0.12324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033929, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006364, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.181848, "worst_return": -0.148129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019749, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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-67.304583, "energy": 68.442579, "activity_lines": [ 50.976, 309.673636, 1772.115, 2528.996237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.41, "volume": 128195, "typical_volume": 127363.65, "trend": 3207.464, "fair_value": 3641.211026, "relative_strength": -98.802582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.200823, "energy": 68.198949, "activity_lines": [ 50.767333, 136.411636, 1513.342095, 2315.989333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.57, "volume": 285433, "typical_volume": 128726.85, "trend": 3066.683, "fair_value": 3619.118526, "relative_strength": -98.737786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.049449, "energy": 67.867225, "activity_lines": [ 50.644, 50.771273, 1275.549143, 2112.318753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.65, "volume": 133540, "typical_volume": 128007.55, "trend": 2918.071333, "fair_value": 3597.103462, "relative_strength": -98.682492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.824034, "energy": 67.329988, "activity_lines": [ 50.929333, 50.935091, 1058.19919, 1917.800495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }