{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c5d33bc-e627-41fd-a002-4c01d78a09ef", "symbol": "IMTM", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI INTL MOMENTUM FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.628, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.175, "architecture_energy": 28.584, "architecture_maturity": 29.783, "architecture_confidence": 82.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.39, "rotation_up": 34.18, "upward_expansion": 64.7, "deceleration": 93.76, "rotation_down": 25.25, "downward_expansion": 7.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.597333, 52.549454, 52.249414, 51.607234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.56, "trend_reference": 50.967029, "distance_from_trend": 0.050875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.998729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.082093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056036, "excess_performance": -0.069589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1285511, "relative_activity": 0.559186, "balance": 1.348221, "dry_up": 0.781752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035218, "annualized_volatility": 0.197591, "from_high_reference": -0.01526, "from_low_reference": 0.23075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.967029, "fair_value_reference": 39.998729, "structural_low": 45.462233, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003699, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.140358, "worst_return": -0.018746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025485, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173747, "worst_return": -0.03576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090159, "worst_return": 0.027837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026912, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068948, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-1.293159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.601768, "energy": 41.715917, "activity_lines": [ 52.72622, 52.504869, 51.698462, 51.148877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.66, "volume": 1714945, "typical_volume": 2664212.05, "trend": 50.542786, "fair_value": 39.565267, "relative_strength": -1.7138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.092883, "energy": 23.122912, "activity_lines": [ 52.334, 52.384656, 51.780773, 51.23036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.17, "volume": 1653630, "typical_volume": 2485869.9, "trend": 50.685787, "fair_value": 39.703182, "relative_strength": -0.198826, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.882185, "energy": 20.486797, "activity_lines": [ 52.194667, 52.367011, 51.913857, 51.335342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.16, "volume": 2534584, "typical_volume": 2422018.3, "trend": 50.819885, "fair_value": 39.846788, "relative_strength": -1.313195, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.570384, "energy": 17.199415, "activity_lines": [ 52.157333, 52.330675, 52.026972, 51.430452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.56, "volume": 1285511, "typical_volume": 2298897.35, "trend": 50.967029, "fair_value": 39.998729, "relative_strength": -2.082093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.174512, "energy": 28.584255, "activity_lines": [ 52.597333, 52.549454, 52.249414, 51.607234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }