{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c601012-6f01-42a8-a3ff-e97fe09fe0fc", "symbol": "HIPS", "name": "HSBC MSCI Europe Islamic Screened UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.47, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.065, "architecture_energy": 34.667, "architecture_maturity": 62.068, "architecture_confidence": 85.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 34.27, "upward_expansion": 60.38, "deceleration": 88.1, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 21.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.685999, 31.797636, 31.483214, 30.946301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.169998, "trend_reference": 30.345833, "distance_from_trend": 0.060113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.172151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229169, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.80365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092731, "excess_performance": 0.039419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060113, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038037, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7694, "relative_activity": 1.143673, "balance": 0.670255, "dry_up": 1.666865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021496, "annualized_volatility": 0.158842, "from_high_reference": -0.014249, "from_low_reference": 0.263055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.345833, "fair_value_reference": 26.172151, "structural_low": 26.915001, "invalidation": "A 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"sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.011068, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011068, "worst_return": 0.011068, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054542, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011252, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.756737, "energy": 89.186921, "activity_lines": [ 32.227, 31.829182, 30.926333, 30.426592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.625, "volume": 6510, "typical_volume": 7170.05, "trend": 29.877167, "fair_value": 25.93026, "relative_strength": 7.570012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.441178, "energy": 68.495061, "activity_lines": [ 32.063666, 31.870455, 31.055333, 30.54814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.295, "volume": 26540, "typical_volume": 7686.35, "trend": 29.997667, "fair_value": 25.988497, "relative_strength": 6.219023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.236533, "energy": 47.855969, "activity_lines": [ 31.795666, 31.821818, 31.146262, 30.639613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.555, "volume": 4896, "typical_volume": 7092.65, "trend": 30.125333, "fair_value": 26.04635, "relative_strength": 6.427598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.188953, "energy": 40.962114, "activity_lines": [ 31.671333, 31.802091, 31.258143, 30.740086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.389999, "volume": 5725, "typical_volume": 6561.3, "trend": 30.238333, "fair_value": 26.106446, "relative_strength": 3.952256, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.344997, "energy": 25.762944, "activity_lines": [ 31.529333, 31.729909, 31.340524, 30.821677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.169998, "volume": 7694, "typical_volume": 6727.45, "trend": 30.345833, "fair_value": 26.172151, "relative_strength": 3.80365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.065498, "energy": 34.666987, "activity_lines": [ 31.685999, 31.797636, 31.483214, 30.946301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }