{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c648d05-fd25-45af-a840-32b0c02db0c7", "symbol": "RS2G", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Russell 2000 ETF-C USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.303, "architecture_energy": 45.985, "architecture_maturity": 64.104, "architecture_confidence": 84.123, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.87, "rotation_up": 38.9, "upward_expansion": 67.94, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 20.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 33184.666667, 33322.136364, 32770.880952, 31928.446237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33695.0, "trend_reference": 30946.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.088806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25789.740885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.105338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156017, "excess_performance": 0.104782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051053, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.126733, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2502, "relative_activity": 1.612321, "balance": 1.126733, "dry_up": 1.809512, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02308, "annualized_volatility": 0.133383, "from_high_reference": -0.102486, "from_low_reference": 0.370551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30946.75, "fair_value_reference": 25789.740885, "structural_low": 27115.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.020008, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.041319, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059974, "worst_return": -0.093169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044019, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052713, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.100551, "worst_return": -0.21481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017007, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192792, "worst_return": -0.121785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028895, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.132808, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110663, "worst_return": -0.107464, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012343, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036589, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32525.0, "volume": 2776, "typical_volume": 1719.7, "trend": 30801.833333, "fair_value": 25715.413962, "relative_strength": 2.021398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.909538, "energy": 43.058613, "activity_lines": [ 33014.0, 33229.454545, 32573.321429, 31741.790323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33695.0, "volume": 2502, "typical_volume": 1551.8, "trend": 30946.75, "fair_value": 25789.740885, "relative_strength": 5.105338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.302967, "energy": 45.984726, "activity_lines": [ 33184.666667, 33322.136364, 32770.880952, 31928.446237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }