{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c654ed5-801b-4414-9f18-cbf5c9a3fc80", "symbol": "GRAL", "name": "GRAIL, LLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.47, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.03, "architecture_energy": 20.822, "architecture_maturity": 14.132, "architecture_confidence": 44.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.23, "rotation_up": 41.32, "upward_expansion": 46.43, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.493333, 68.636909, 65.689905, 63.655634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.48, "trend_reference": 65.970667, "distance_from_trend": 0.053195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.855811, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.515184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.202675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.305686, "excess_performance": -0.49314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.515184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.8563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4939069, "relative_activity": 1.459195, "balance": 1.8563, "dry_up": 0.900067, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133774, "annualized_volatility": 1.119019, "from_high_reference": -0.415348, "from_low_reference": 1.319866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.970667, "fair_value_reference": 45.855811, "structural_low": 41.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.570896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", 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"trend": 67.668333, "fair_value": 45.43078, "relative_strength": -7.077724, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.918751, "energy": 39.985602, "activity_lines": [ 69.988, 67.924727, 64.002, 63.437548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.56, "volume": 2856818, "typical_volume": 3371176.05, "trend": 66.991333, "fair_value": 45.641045, "relative_strength": -7.277124, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.750523, "energy": 31.090134, "activity_lines": [ 69.675333, 68.209636, 64.862857, 63.495075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.48, "volume": 4939069, "typical_volume": 3384789.55, "trend": 65.970667, "fair_value": 45.855811, "relative_strength": -11.202675, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.03039, "energy": 20.821976, "activity_lines": [ 69.493333, 68.636909, 65.689905, 63.655634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }