{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c71a5fa-f536-48cf-a4e8-89bc00dfeff6", "symbol": "BTOU", "name": "Manulife US Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.015, "architecture_energy": 88.601, "architecture_maturity": 62.838, "architecture_confidence": 91.618, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 13.81, "upward_expansion": 21.32, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 79.12, "downward_expansion": 99.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0496, 0.050818, 0.052762, 0.054787 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.049, "trend_reference": 0.058367, "distance_from_trend": -0.16048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.072109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.365899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268657, "excess_performance": -0.423492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16016, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268657, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1513600, "relative_activity": 0.289589, "balance": 0.122407, "dry_up": 0.532323, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042386, "annualized_volatility": 0.200936, "from_high_reference": -0.449438, "from_low_reference": 0.020833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.058367, "fair_value_reference": 0.072109, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": -0.049815, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.96, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.112924, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.141955, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.54955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.21579, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.196263, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.38, "worst_return": -0.72067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.052867, 0.053655, 0.055129, 0.057566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 1754600, "typical_volume": 5844225.0, "trend": 0.060633, "fair_value": 0.073154, "relative_strength": -35.694404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.072666, "energy": 77.835642, "activity_lines": [ 0.0518, 0.052818, 0.054481, 0.056834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.049, "volume": 4753800, "typical_volume": 5711405.0, "trend": 0.059933, "fair_value": 0.072756, "relative_strength": -37.255627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.938447, "energy": 88.612059, "activity_lines": [ 0.050667, 0.051964, 0.053814, 0.056084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3107200, "typical_volume": 5567440.0, "trend": 0.059167, "fair_value": 0.07241, "relative_strength": -35.856073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.571943, "energy": 83.135566, "activity_lines": [ 0.0502, 0.051436, 0.05331, 0.055443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.049, "volume": 1513600, "typical_volume": 5226710.0, "trend": 0.058367, "fair_value": 0.072109, "relative_strength": -37.365899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.014501, "energy": 88.601497, "activity_lines": [ 0.0496, 0.050818, 0.052762, 0.054787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }