{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c727b6a-5e6e-41ce-ae9d-041097d73c7e", "symbol": "AMH", "name": "AMCIL Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.819, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.82, "architecture_energy": 17.068, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.429, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.91, "rotation_up": 36.4, "upward_expansion": 22.16, "deceleration": 40.8, "rotation_down": 23.69, "downward_expansion": 56.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.899462, 0.892909, 0.895648, 0.904995 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 0.922724, "distance_from_trend": -0.013789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.993802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.250692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076142, "excess_performance": -0.139848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.442866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 648786, "relative_activity": 1.120548, "balance": 1.442866, "dry_up": 1.406113, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029095, "annualized_volatility": 0.168219, "from_high_reference": -0.186637, "from_low_reference": 0.056555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.922724, "fair_value_reference": 0.993802, "structural_low": 0.86129, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.00474, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.007913, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.074236, "worst_return": -0.044247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005957, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.01166, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132276, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013246, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.158981, "worst_return": -0.13, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 535559.85, "trend": 0.932713, "fair_value": 0.993527, "relative_strength": -8.675148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.312842, "energy": 39.045418, "activity_lines": [ 0.88628, 0.88683, 0.897279, 0.91066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.909677, "volume": 1153453, "typical_volume": 551545.6, "trend": 0.929702, "fair_value": 0.993687, "relative_strength": -7.145401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.190557, "energy": 21.802022, "activity_lines": [ 0.895419, 0.890839, 0.897409, 0.909174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.880645, "volume": 599916, "typical_volume": 559976.4, "trend": 0.925724, "fair_value": 0.993607, "relative_strength": -11.776604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.456984, "energy": 22.45033, "activity_lines": [ 0.892903, 0.88912, 0.895013, 0.906009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.91, "volume": 648786, "typical_volume": 578989.75, "trend": 0.922724, "fair_value": 0.993802, "relative_strength": -11.250692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.819621, "energy": 17.067998, "activity_lines": [ 0.899462, 0.892909, 0.895648, 0.904995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }