{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c72ec1d-747d-423b-a9d1-35cb88ff1bc8", "symbol": "DFH", "name": "Dream Finders Homes\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.986, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.667, "architecture_energy": 21.767, "architecture_maturity": 28.636, "architecture_confidence": 59.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.19, "rotation_up": 12.64, "upward_expansion": 9.74, "deceleration": 60.06, "rotation_down": 46.93, "downward_expansion": 61.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.772, 15.325091, 15.192476, 15.339269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.03, "trend_reference": 16.026667, "distance_from_trend": -0.062188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.092051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.968508, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.231988, "excess_performance": -0.357613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.308795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4328551, "relative_activity": 1.275767, "balance": 1.308795, "dry_up": 0.957499, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146706, "annualized_volatility": 0.588535, "from_high_reference": -0.522784, "from_low_reference": 0.231967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.026667, "fair_value_reference": 25.092051, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013988, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.453915, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061041, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.443719, "worst_return": -0.281335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.277679, "worst_return": -0.293792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.843521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.654306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.85625, "worst_return": -0.169208, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160982, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.210926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126163, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.81, "volume": 1471848, "typical_volume": 1247916.6, "trend": 18.212333, "fair_value": 17.906667, "relative_strength": 69.155425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.56655, "energy": 59.99774, "activity_lines": [ 27.782, 26.641818, 23.894143, 21.369118 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 26.11, "volume": 931491, "typical_volume": 1272048.5, "trend": 18.709333, "fair_value": 17.966985, "relative_strength": 60.910455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.853231, "energy": 54.724746, "activity_lines": [ 27.39, 26.708909, 24.364333, 21.878645 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 29.9, "volume": 1171184, "typical_volume": 1312258.9, "trend": 19.273, "fair_value": 18.054088, "relative_strength": 76.507706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.264664, "energy": 54.363623, "activity_lines": [ 28.174, 27.434909, 25.134095, 22.600624 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 27.29, "volume": 660186, "typical_volume": 1312861.2, "trend": 19.771333, "fair_value": 18.121014, "relative_strength": 60.707319, "stage": 2, 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"down", "direction": -5.985598, "energy": 15.430237, "activity_lines": [ 16.192667, 15.845455, 15.305286, 15.671957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.92, "volume": 2978514, "typical_volume": 3535308.9, "trend": 16.325667, "fair_value": 25.29391, "relative_strength": -24.750211, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.612297, "energy": 10.561233, "activity_lines": [ 16.082, 15.938909, 15.389524, 15.641613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.79, "volume": 3189009, "typical_volume": 3452762.45, "trend": 16.180667, "fair_value": 25.181154, "relative_strength": -39.230526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.731402, "energy": 26.967043, "activity_lines": [ 14.906667, 15.412, 15.177952, 15.413505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.03, "volume": 4328551, "typical_volume": 3392902.05, "trend": 16.026667, "fair_value": 25.092051, "relative_strength": -29.968508, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.666999, "energy": 21.767446, "activity_lines": [ 14.772, 15.325091, 15.192476, 15.339269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }