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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.731, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.978, "architecture_energy": 65.963, "architecture_maturity": 19.941, "architecture_confidence": 73.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.06, "rotation_up": 71.29, "upward_expansion": 88.14, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 13.98, "downward_expansion": 12.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.358226, 141.346215, 137.721028, 135.268936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 145.59, "trend_reference": 132.444025, "distance_from_trend": 0.099257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.42005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219142, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.951795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134638, "excess_performance": 0.009013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.219142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090954, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06818, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.921122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2174424, "relative_activity": 0.947201, "balance": 1.921122, "dry_up": 0.860045, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039457, "annualized_volatility": 0.14951, "from_high_reference": -0.016616, "from_low_reference": 0.193729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.444025, "fair_value_reference": 119.42005, "structural_low": 122.129581, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 68.284447, "energy": 70.5849, "activity_lines": [ 138.779127, 136.282975, 133.682095, 132.211236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 141.89, "volume": 2072193, "typical_volume": 2458899.1, "trend": 131.215011, "fair_value": 118.525082, "relative_strength": -0.625471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.27601, "energy": 75.434695, "activity_lines": [ 140.371297, 137.566274, 134.651139, 132.91754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.76, "volume": 1586553, "typical_volume": 2417834.2, "trend": 131.527367, "fair_value": 118.789611, "relative_strength": 1.240549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.965041, "energy": 77.323264, "activity_lines": [ 141.986459, 138.990855, 135.74989, 133.726894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.72, "volume": 2064215, "typical_volume": 2411544.8, "trend": 131.880991, "fair_value": 119.09781, "relative_strength": -1.278598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.805737, "energy": 69.236669, "activity_lines": [ 142.141431, 139.865845, 136.586496, 134.384484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.59, "volume": 2174424, "typical_volume": 2295630.1, "trend": 132.444025, "fair_value": 119.42005, "relative_strength": -1.951795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.978479, "energy": 65.963172, "activity_lines": [ 143.358226, 141.346215, 137.721028, 135.268936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }