{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c7e3c22-2b8e-4c94-85cb-a297d420b107", "symbol": "TCBIO", "name": "Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.023, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.201, "architecture_energy": 32.523, "architecture_maturity": 13.213, "architecture_confidence": 90.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.65, "rotation_up": 23.84, "upward_expansion": 4.09, "deceleration": 49.86, "rotation_down": 42.51, "downward_expansion": 75.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.466, 20.484091, 20.624449, 20.806423 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.4, "trend_reference": 20.912055, "distance_from_trend": -0.024486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.385176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.948136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017694, "excess_performance": -0.205147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.376333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55564, "relative_activity": 0.590571, "balance": 1.376333, "dry_up": 0.701256, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022241, "annualized_volatility": 0.100932, "from_high_reference": -0.095541, "from_low_reference": 0.086505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.912055, "fair_value_reference": 18.385176, "structural_low": 20.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.055644, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.003258, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.186357, "worst_return": -0.078072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017488, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061777, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.244669, "worst_return": -0.043071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.176903, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.234157, "worst_return": -0.105322, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 20.593667, 20.559964, 20.782904, 20.895853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.37, "volume": 51598, "typical_volume": 104379.15, "trend": 20.86235, "fair_value": 18.324404, "relative_strength": -8.705308, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.126914, "energy": 17.640203, "activity_lines": [ 20.534333, 20.526158, 20.719008, 20.86521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.44, "volume": 72603, "typical_volume": 100546.3, "trend": 20.888836, "fair_value": 18.353777, "relative_strength": -8.630591, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.049362, "energy": 26.205956, "activity_lines": [ 20.513, 20.507362, 20.669967, 20.837961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4, "volume": 55564, "typical_volume": 94085.15, "trend": 20.912055, "fair_value": 18.385176, "relative_strength": -12.948136, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.200532, "energy": 32.523348, "activity_lines": [ 20.466, 20.484091, 20.624449, 20.806423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }