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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 52.898, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.897, "architecture_energy": 57.52, "architecture_maturity": 16.718, "architecture_confidence": 77.885, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.93, "rotation_up": 59.18, "upward_expansion": 82.33, "deceleration": 50.47, "rotation_down": 17.84, "downward_expansion": 13.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 163.055998, 159.478545, 155.799524, 151.312473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 173.429993, "trend_reference": 146.480667, "distance_from_trend": 0.183979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 162.745513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.841206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.361089, "excess_performance": 0.240668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.183979, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102132, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.361089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247835, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 405700, "relative_activity": 0.996475, "balance": 1.247835, "dry_up": 1.0168, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075153, "annualized_volatility": 0.43511, "from_high_reference": -0.137164, "from_low_reference": 0.479526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.480667, "fair_value_reference": 162.745513, "structural_low": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.24996, "energy": 9.558715, "activity_lines": [ 154.656001, 155.190546, 150.859001, 147.820409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 154.539993, "volume": 249000, "typical_volume": 465510.0, "trend": 147.668, "fair_value": 162.851859, "relative_strength": -15.314119, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.69316, "energy": 21.376782, "activity_lines": [ 154.447998, 155.228727, 151.647238, 148.21557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.600006, "volume": 409200, "typical_volume": 423440.0, "trend": 146.745667, "fair_value": 162.670513, "relative_strength": -18.322957, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.445457, "energy": 14.962483, "activity_lines": [ 152.526, 154.081273, 151.655334, 148.211183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 168.0, "volume": 592000, "typical_volume": 415750.0, "trend": 146.614334, "fair_value": 162.659423, "relative_strength": -5.676111, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.635977, "energy": 32.544718, "activity_lines": [ 157.328, 156.484546, 153.547382, 149.582431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 173.429993, "volume": 405700, "typical_volume": 407135.0, "trend": 146.480667, "fair_value": 162.745513, "relative_strength": -4.841206, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.896866, "energy": 57.520046, "activity_lines": [ 163.055998, 159.478545, 155.799524, 151.312473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }