{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c853c8a-1136-4dfa-bc5d-1fd411795e08", "symbol": "Z2LL34", "name": "Zillow Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.184, "architecture_energy": 61.639, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.246, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 48.83, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.762667, 13.777818, 14.709095, 15.952968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.86, "trend_reference": 18.573333, "distance_from_trend": -0.253769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.763205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.482125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.866859, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.54765, "excess_performance": -0.490602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.482125, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.518669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.54765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.891056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2956, "relative_activity": 9.338177, "balance": 0.891056, "dry_up": 2.371663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060107, "annualized_volatility": 0.691212, "from_high_reference": -0.658957, "from_low_reference": 0.066154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.573333, "fair_value_reference": 26.763205, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005456, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.414975, "worst_return": -0.187113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.283394, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.228642, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.450909, "worst_return": -0.283465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.363301, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.234726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.23402, "worst_return": 0.147273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": -77.958823, "energy": 72.285075, "activity_lines": [ 15.14, 15.827272, 16.955285, 19.424494 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 264.9, "trend": 22.731, "fair_value": 27.030384, "relative_strength": -59.81327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.431842, "energy": 79.800751, "activity_lines": [ 14.390667, 15.224, 16.457476, 18.745247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 239.0, "trend": 21.813667, "fair_value": 26.994872, "relative_strength": -59.3876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.269361, "energy": 78.693675, "activity_lines": [ 13.842667, 14.706727, 16.043095, 18.125183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 229.0, "trend": 21.121, "fair_value": 26.94282, "relative_strength": -59.50713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.243564, "energy": 75.884477, "activity_lines": [ 13.496, 14.275454, 15.660238, 17.564301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.34, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 227.15, "trend": 20.469, "fair_value": 26.89859, "relative_strength": -53.748675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.658836, "energy": 69.014777, "activity_lines": [ 13.652, 14.152, 15.423952, 17.126817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.15, "trend": 19.817, "fair_value": 26.857179, "relative_strength": -52.851639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.250371, "energy": 68.367931, "activity_lines": [ 13.852, 14.092364, 15.211095, 16.731398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.08, "volume": 34, "typical_volume": 168.8, "trend": 19.188667, "fair_value": 26.807692, "relative_strength": -56.980344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.379416, "energy": 74.253103, "activity_lines": [ 13.676, 13.836364, 14.906714, 16.296753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.86, "volume": 2956, "typical_volume": 316.55, "trend": 18.573333, "fair_value": 26.763205, "relative_strength": -51.866859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.183563, "energy": 61.638617, "activity_lines": [ 13.762667, 13.777818, 14.709095, 15.952968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }