{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c875c67-b49c-46d9-849e-2cd560d52e30", "symbol": "FPE", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III FIRST TR PFD SECS & INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.213, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.129, "architecture_energy": 18.668, "architecture_maturity": 32.052, "architecture_confidence": 67.798, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.31, "rotation_up": 22.01, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 43.18, "rotation_down": 40.34, "downward_expansion": 65.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.814413, 17.820404, 17.83822, 17.837476 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.87, "trend_reference": 17.858482, "distance_from_trend": 0.000645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.316159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.434205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006214, "excess_performance": -0.131839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00117, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4829021, "relative_activity": 0.890404, "balance": 0.810517, "dry_up": 0.881747, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006553, "annualized_volatility": 0.046674, "from_high_reference": -0.014419, "from_low_reference": 0.042529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.858482, "fair_value_reference": 16.316159, "structural_low": 17.381815, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005306, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058022, "worst_return": -0.041465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019677, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032978, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.044445, "worst_return": -0.077496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045974, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088879, "worst_return": -0.129719, 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-7.506805, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.818547, "energy": 26.242229, "activity_lines": [ 17.813834, 17.824347, 17.836275, 17.842778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.77, "volume": 5053458, "typical_volume": 5535396.3, "trend": 17.859651, "fair_value": 16.289643, "relative_strength": -8.088237, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.026585, "energy": 33.836214, "activity_lines": [ 17.796822, 17.812809, 17.832588, 17.836808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.87, "volume": 4829021, "typical_volume": 5423406.9, "trend": 17.858482, "fair_value": 16.316159, "relative_strength": -10.434205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.12864, "energy": 18.668175, "activity_lines": [ 17.814413, 17.820404, 17.83822, 17.837476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }