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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.073, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.324, "architecture_energy": 39.473, "architecture_maturity": 44.085, "architecture_confidence": 66.401, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.88, "rotation_up": 54.04, "upward_expansion": 80.41, "deceleration": 62.74, "rotation_down": 22.06, "downward_expansion": 4.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.133333, 228.288545, 219.798857, 211.827526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 236.0, "trend_reference": 204.05222, "distance_from_trend": 0.156567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 230.778526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.935918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195906, "excess_performance": -0.245466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177936, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176979, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.466886, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680222, "relative_activity": 0.654442, "balance": 1.466886, "dry_up": 1.356977, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094155, "annualized_volatility": 0.34068, "from_high_reference": -0.083139, "from_low_reference": 0.375291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.05222, "fair_value_reference": 230.778526, 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"close": 216.5, "volume": 1335561, "typical_volume": 970055.55, "trend": 201.912442, "fair_value": 231.785044, "relative_strength": -25.004789, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.481433, "energy": 43.314631, "activity_lines": [ 228.466667, 224.49606, 214.568444, 207.848106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.5, "volume": 1418000, "typical_volume": 1023541.85, "trend": 202.906553, "fair_value": 231.138719, "relative_strength": -21.135002, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.954066, "energy": 41.537926, "activity_lines": [ 229.166667, 226.124424, 217.032475, 209.692465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 236.0, "volume": 680222, "typical_volume": 1039392.4, "trend": 204.05222, "fair_value": 230.778526, "relative_strength": -20.935918, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.323729, "energy": 39.473241, "activity_lines": [ 231.133333, 228.288545, 219.798857, 211.827526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }