{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c89bdf8-e49a-4f93-8e12-86beccafabb6", "symbol": "000821", "name": "J.S. Corrugating Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.907, "architecture_energy": 65.605, "architecture_maturity": 56.834, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 22.57, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.22, "rotation_down": 61.95, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.114667, 7.473781, 8.36781, 9.41576 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.27, "trend_reference": 10.835461, "distance_from_trend": -0.329055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.619071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.423888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.030145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.436871, "excess_performance": -0.44427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.329055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137341, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.423888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.436871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39828424, "relative_activity": 0.727635, "balance": 0.253536, "dry_up": 0.77174, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123812, "annualized_volatility": 0.544898, "from_high_reference": -0.561784, "from_low_reference": 0.144882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.835461, "fair_value_reference": 12.619071, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.019559, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.020935, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.680217, "worst_return": -0.277158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.133417, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025068, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.324102, "worst_return": -0.312713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058823, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.079359, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.953448, "worst_return": -0.299203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 6.97, "volume": 41853900, "typical_volume": 66032966.85, "trend": 11.447794, "fair_value": 12.843685, "relative_strength": -42.244639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.95877, "energy": 80.483409, "activity_lines": [ 7.631561, 8.164019, 9.173484, 10.228021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.83, "volume": 56755115, "typical_volume": 61937509.25, "trend": 11.250127, "fair_value": 12.766455, "relative_strength": -42.941198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.534869, "energy": 74.016307, "activity_lines": [ 7.298631, 7.838745, 8.850418, 9.930099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.05, "volume": 30532804, "typical_volume": 58084536.75, "trend": 11.042127, "fair_value": 12.692026, "relative_strength": -39.490278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.704409, "energy": 73.86082, "activity_lines": [ 7.158, 7.611086, 8.58259, 9.659123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.27, "volume": 39828424, "typical_volume": 54736804.0, "trend": 10.835461, "fair_value": 12.619071, "relative_strength": -40.030145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.906892, "energy": 65.604551, "activity_lines": [ 7.114667, 7.473781, 8.36781, 9.41576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }