{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c8ff3e2-464e-49ad-9ec8-0ce49206f44d", "symbol": "PV1", "name": "Provaris Energy Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.248, "architecture_energy": 49.642, "architecture_maturity": 98.028, "architecture_confidence": 87.005, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.84, "rotation_up": 17.24, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 58.05, "rotation_down": 61.31, "downward_expansion": 80.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006733, 0.007055, 0.00791, 0.008469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.009417, "distance_from_trend": -0.256637, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.711911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.509797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.461538, "excess_performance": -0.525244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.711911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.465098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.461538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2615327, "relative_activity": 0.838101, "balance": 0.812428, "dry_up": 0.719355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.779114, "from_high_reference": -0.72, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009417, "fair_value_reference": 0.024298, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.020621, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.053096, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.933333, "worst_return": -0.268293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.128141, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.221024, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.544118, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", 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"typical_volume": 3446033.75, "trend": 0.009917, "fair_value": 0.025093, "relative_strength": -45.922189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.694878, "energy": 74.569515, "activity_lines": [ 0.006967, 0.007673, 0.008305, 0.008892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1506999, "typical_volume": 3120505.95, "trend": 0.00965, "fair_value": 0.024702, "relative_strength": -53.642647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.388242, "energy": 65.501757, "activity_lines": [ 0.006667, 0.007245, 0.00805, 0.00864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2615327, "typical_volume": 3120537.8, "trend": 0.009417, "fair_value": 0.024298, "relative_strength": -46.509797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.247596, "energy": 49.6416, "activity_lines": [ 0.006733, 0.007055, 0.00791, 0.008469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }