{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8c90ebb6-ac67-4642-8174-e7d46d04dc26",
    "symbol": "QMAR",
    "name": "FT VEST NASDAQ-100 BUFFER ETF - MARCH",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.116,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.072,
    "architecture_energy": 55.61,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.354,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.567,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.81,
        "rotation_up": 48.25,
        "upward_expansion": 79.82,
        "deceleration": 71.21,
        "rotation_down": 29.32,
        "downward_expansion": 8.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        37.121913,
        37.044384,
        36.87288,
        36.250138
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 37.67,
    "trend_reference": 35.35642,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.065436,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.809212,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263703,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.334628,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.135846,
    "excess_performance": 0.010221,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065436,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042247,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.263703,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021868,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013346,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023299,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135846,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.232728,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28996,
      "relative_activity": 0.249201,
      "balance": 1.232728,
      "dry_up": 0.395078,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014307,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.088122,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.201212
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.35642,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.809212,
      "structural_low": 32.6999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.018481,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 5.9e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.05574,
        "worst_return": -0.033578,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.053474,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015817,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.088799,
        "worst_return": 0.032755,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.10758,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056846,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.118223,
        "worst_return": 0.064483,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.138832,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073899,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.151553,
        "worst_return": 0.126112,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002229,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024079,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.013297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032542,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01029,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046268,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026351,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003498,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.099559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014197,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026055,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.177863,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028664,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 128817.85,
        "trend": 33.148553,
        "fair_value": 28.527293,
        "relative_strength": 1.915139,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.120534,
        "energy": 96.787096,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 132353.7,
        "trend": 33.28606,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 133481.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 134129.35,
        "trend": 33.606773,
        "fair_value": 28.79837,
        "relative_strength": 0.66845,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 92.657435,
        "activity_lines": [
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          34.767919,
          34.245033
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 37.05,
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        "typical_volume": 135417.8,
        "trend": 33.760773,
        "fair_value": 28.886831,
        "relative_strength": 0.41427,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 91.174214,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 106259,
        "typical_volume": 133176.0,
        "trend": 33.92328,
        "fair_value": 28.975839,
        "relative_strength": -0.153214,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 130781.25,
        "trend": 34.072077,
        "fair_value": 29.060723,
        "relative_strength": 0.814173,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 67.402232,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 130132.0,
        "trend": 34.226253,
        "fair_value": 29.144697,
        "relative_strength": 0.883441,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 65.518932,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 122401.9,
        "trend": 34.535977,
        "fair_value": 29.313155,
        "relative_strength": 2.078087,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.359317,
        "energy": 59.747945,
        "activity_lines": [
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          36.139376,
          35.415257
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 36.9183,
        "volume": 25779,
        "typical_volume": 121181.85,
        "trend": 34.674253,
        "fair_value": 29.396446,
        "relative_strength": 0.206575,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 55.753654,
        "activity_lines": [
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          35.568955
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 37.2502,
        "volume": 20488,
        "typical_volume": 120366.95,
        "trend": 34.823927,
        "fair_value": 29.479706,
        "relative_strength": -0.212056,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.026512,
        "energy": 62.951379,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.05028,
          37.025087,
          36.46307,
          35.735145
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 36.82,
        "volume": 67992,
        "typical_volume": 121479.15,
        "trend": 34.954763,
        "fair_value": 29.560544,
        "relative_strength": 0.214929,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.525015,
        "energy": 52.893042,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.980047,
          36.991444,
          36.571777,
          35.863924
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.6203,
        "volume": 23407,
        "typical_volume": 120979.4,
        "trend": 35.07469,
        "fair_value": 29.639135,
        "relative_strength": 0.268253,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.291152,
        "energy": 46.002957,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.85258,
          36.923087,
          36.645028,
          35.971378
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.9319,
        "volume": 63484,
        "typical_volume": 120565.1,
        "trend": 35.20642,
        "fair_value": 29.721583,
        "relative_strength": 0.073058,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.556779,
        "energy": 42.054403,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.86796,
          36.915562,
          36.732013,
          36.091198
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.67,
        "volume": 28996,
        "typical_volume": 116356.0,
        "trend": 35.35642,
        "fair_value": 29.809212,
        "relative_strength": -1.334628,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.072385,
        "energy": 55.609748,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.121913,
          37.044384,
          36.87288,
          36.250138
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}