{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c94ee39-ff11-4301-8438-b287ade455b2", "symbol": "600818", "name": "Zhonglu.Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.143, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.562, "architecture_energy": 17.666, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 50.174, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.79, "rotation_up": 33.8, "upward_expansion": 23.11, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 14.84, "downward_expansion": 54.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.400667, 6.095091, 6.22281, 6.812774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.42, "trend_reference": 7.694, "distance_from_trend": -0.035612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.080301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.435784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.248988, "excess_performance": -0.205784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035612, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.599631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56979916, "relative_activity": 2.186618, "balance": 1.599631, "dry_up": 1.223223, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091333, "annualized_volatility": 0.504814, "from_high_reference": -0.388797, "from_low_reference": 0.405303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.694, "fair_value_reference": 12.080301, "structural_low": 5.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.001512, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.021745, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.971402, "worst_return": -0.283995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.028846, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.050845, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.99166, "worst_return": -0.341407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.128581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.881563, "worst_return": -0.247678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.248151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.9, "volume": 29511000, "typical_volume": 24635054.7, "trend": 8.035, "fair_value": 12.322292, "relative_strength": -33.103676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.946679, "energy": 52.484362, "activity_lines": [ 5.778, 5.748545, 6.371429, 7.102043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.76, "volume": 21268211, "typical_volume": 24185976.25, "trend": 7.892333, "fair_value": 12.227278, "relative_strength": -34.596815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.012216, "energy": 44.342629, "activity_lines": [ 5.805333, 5.746727, 6.24381, 6.955269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.03, "volume": 19742162, "typical_volume": 24257867.9, "trend": 7.766333, "fair_value": 12.146228, "relative_strength": -30.908159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.5784, "energy": 41.116224, "activity_lines": [ 5.890667, 5.795273, 6.159381, 6.835118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.42, "volume": 56979916, "typical_volume": 26058464.0, "trend": 7.694, "fair_value": 12.080301, "relative_strength": -16.435784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.562024, "energy": 17.666071, "activity_lines": [ 6.400667, 6.095091, 6.22281, 6.812774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }