{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c9c3eba-1dcf-4c1e-88e6-73749e8f883a", "symbol": "SPGI", "name": "S&P Global Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.536, "architecture_energy": 14.462, "architecture_maturity": 20.703, "architecture_confidence": 64.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.61, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 22.61, "deceleration": 32.46, "rotation_down": 36.87, "downward_expansion": 54.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 365.726668, 367.802711, 365.546099, 366.219643 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 354.799988, "trend_reference": 373.608472, "distance_from_trend": -0.050343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 413.610952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.469006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052959, "excess_performance": -0.227206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.431373, "dry_up": 1.542553, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056676, "annualized_volatility": 0.353467, "from_high_reference": -0.262201, "from_low_reference": 0.103294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 373.608472, "fair_value_reference": 413.610952, "structural_low": 321.582367, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001166, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 5.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099447, "worst_return": -0.191544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001691, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183917, "worst_return": -0.136712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006577, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280043, "worst_return": -0.154095, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107419, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009657, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05235, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 342.826111, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 7.1, "trend": 329.805946, "fair_value": 322.192924, "relative_strength": 6.026368, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 373.100006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.25, "trend": 379.87358, "fair_value": 413.447047, "relative_strength": -24.351393, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.816825, "energy": 23.110966, "activity_lines": [ 379.152488, 372.133533, 367.271773, 369.129459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 357.200012, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 4.7, "trend": 377.228565, "fair_value": 413.542932, "relative_strength": -26.695495, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.158291, "energy": 17.164766, "activity_lines": [ 373.420007, 370.177026, 366.499185, 367.666648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 354.799988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.7, "trend": 373.608472, "fair_value": 413.610952, "relative_strength": -28.469006, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.536413, "energy": 14.461534, "activity_lines": [ 365.726668, 367.802711, 365.546099, 366.219643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }