{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ca01480-19c1-4479-b9bc-e72143d667a5", "symbol": "ONTX", "name": "Ontex Group NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.961, "architecture_energy": 65.487, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.629, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 54.5, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.346333, 2.366455, 2.514548, 2.845247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.555, "trend_reference": 3.395667, "distance_from_trend": -0.24757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.754904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.510293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.497047, "excess_performance": -0.671294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24757, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621756, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.555103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033098, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.497047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.092032, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1686, "relative_activity": 2.037955, "balance": 2.092032, "dry_up": 1.586788, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062472, "annualized_volatility": 0.376186, "from_high_reference": -0.618657, "from_low_reference": 0.196721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.395667, "fair_value_reference": 6.754904, "structural_low": 2.135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.042776, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.052641, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.173979, "worst_return": -0.286722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00761, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.075468, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.429989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13577, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.167279, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.369276, "worst_return": -0.609517, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042328, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.666449, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 148.6, "trend": 7.280167, "fair_value": 8.154455, "relative_strength": 14.607322, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", 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6.821346, "relative_strength": -62.5309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.080393, "energy": 90.332228, "activity_lines": [ 2.281333, 2.376818, 2.597119, 2.988151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.265, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 862.55, "trend": 3.474167, "fair_value": 6.787628, "relative_strength": -60.221894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.125108, "energy": 68.089757, "activity_lines": [ 2.256667, 2.341182, 2.537286, 2.904548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.555, "volume": 1686, "typical_volume": 827.3, "trend": 3.395667, "fair_value": 6.754904, "relative_strength": -55.510293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.960541, "energy": 65.48726, "activity_lines": [ 2.346333, 2.366455, 2.514548, 2.845247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }