{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ca44662-e234-4e04-9177-67db65f504b0", "symbol": "VINP", "name": "Vinci Partners Investments Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.603, "architecture_energy": 23.989, "architecture_maturity": 51.098, "architecture_confidence": 64.227, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.99, "rotation_up": 22.59, "upward_expansion": 8.85, "deceleration": 61.7, "rotation_down": 36.58, "downward_expansion": 65.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.849667, 9.824364, 9.974134, 10.168331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.07, "trend_reference": 10.573199, "distance_from_trend": -0.047592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.698133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.454464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145209, "excess_performance": -0.332663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132066, "relative_activity": 0.385789, "balance": 0.910695, "dry_up": 0.43606, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0653, "annualized_volatility": 0.272547, "from_high_reference": -0.235022, "from_low_reference": 0.151882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.573199, "fair_value_reference": 9.698133, "structural_low": 9.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.038044, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.002044, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.116484, "worst_return": -0.113814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025008, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.158092, "worst_return": -0.159758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026053, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116163, "worst_return": -0.013938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.00048, "energy": 34.23854, "activity_lines": [ 9.873, 9.880285, 10.121745, 10.431762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.71, "volume": 140618, "typical_volume": 394922.6, "trend": 10.861172, "fair_value": 9.669737, "relative_strength": -18.78746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.374305, "energy": 30.831007, "activity_lines": [ 9.833333, 9.832248, 10.068188, 10.351563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.51, "volume": 188455, "typical_volume": 382045.15, "trend": 10.755177, "fair_value": 9.675286, "relative_strength": -18.951361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.502299, "energy": 36.204204, "activity_lines": [ 9.729667, 9.766182, 10.004108, 10.26439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.86, "volume": 135962, "typical_volume": 360836.25, "trend": 10.663751, "fair_value": 9.685719, "relative_strength": -16.255498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.272363, "energy": 30.899601, "activity_lines": [ 9.759333, 9.774636, 9.9792, 10.206637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.07, "volume": 132066, "typical_volume": 342326.95, "trend": 10.573199, "fair_value": 9.698133, "relative_strength": -18.454464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.603486, "energy": 23.988547, "activity_lines": [ 9.849667, 9.824364, 9.974134, 10.168331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }