{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ca459ff-28fb-4f1c-a941-91271180cbc4", "symbol": "KSM-F132", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Limited - KSM Ixmntr Etf Ils", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.822, "architecture_energy": 63.117, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.462, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.39, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.106667, 214.16, 5171.013333, 8930.939355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 219.9, "trend_reference": 13377.213333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983562, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19176.258974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.874291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989632, "excess_performance": -1.018533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35213, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 183.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007799, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.040196, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.072063, "worst_return": -0.989007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039365, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.114473, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.08558, "worst_return": -0.080331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01162, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.138642, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.115903, "worst_return": -0.133884, "sufficient": 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1960.8, "trend": 14855.176667, "fair_value": 19379.777564, "relative_strength": -98.973662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637369, "energy": 67.562089, "activity_lines": [ 214.74, 1212.72, 7264.107619, 10771.753978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 221.2, "volume": 442, "typical_volume": 1939.8, "trend": 14118.55, "fair_value": 19278.63141, "relative_strength": -98.896981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.240001, "energy": 66.939674, "activity_lines": [ 217.76, 543.205455, 6171.768095, 9827.626452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.9, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 1578.7, "trend": 13377.213333, "fair_value": 19176.258974, "relative_strength": -98.874291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.821821, "energy": 63.116751, "activity_lines": [ 219.106667, 214.16, 5171.013333, 8930.939355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }