{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cbad509-df25-4ede-9452-1b052c0a7355", "symbol": "300519", "name": "Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.406, "architecture_energy": 19.681, "architecture_maturity": 70.148, "architecture_confidence": 74.958, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 30.85, "upward_expansion": 21.35, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 26.24, "downward_expansion": 57.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.421333, 13.086182, 13.577733, 14.046449 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.17, "trend_reference": 14.618392, "distance_from_trend": -0.030673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.823417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.72088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088479, "excess_performance": -0.095879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055052, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.251945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27370281, "relative_activity": 1.656232, "balance": 1.251945, "dry_up": 2.587031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092005, "annualized_volatility": 0.327237, "from_high_reference": -0.286245, "from_low_reference": 0.192761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.618392, "fair_value_reference": 13.823417, "structural_low": 11.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.030101, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.034087, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.378806, "worst_return": -0.119318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.094544, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.043135, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.219234, "worst_return": -0.110394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.125343, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031821, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076287, "worst_return": -0.143336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 12.778, 12.971264, 13.835659, 14.305638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.42, "volume": 40611552, "typical_volume": 14521948.95, "trend": 14.679247, "fair_value": 13.838665, "relative_strength": -19.46013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.488292, "energy": 46.23699, "activity_lines": [ 12.714667, 12.79284, 13.646298, 14.153643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.48, "volume": 34765499, "typical_volume": 15708913.9, "trend": 14.632261, "fair_value": 13.828591, "relative_strength": -10.697663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.332235, "energy": 30.611879, "activity_lines": [ 13.004667, 12.862545, 13.573472, 14.076272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.17, "volume": 27370281, "typical_volume": 16525632.95, "trend": 14.618392, "fair_value": 13.823417, "relative_strength": -9.72088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.405685, "energy": 19.681469, "activity_lines": [ 13.421333, 13.086182, 13.577733, 14.046449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }