{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cbeb73f-807e-4c6e-a487-e27836a78204", "symbol": "HTCD", "name": "Tencent Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.95, "architecture_energy": 11.224, "architecture_maturity": 30.335, "architecture_confidence": 50.014, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.36, "rotation_up": 34.74, "upward_expansion": 27.49, "deceleration": 47.01, "rotation_down": 22.16, "downward_expansion": 49.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.636, 7.485455, 7.472881, 7.65344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.82, "trend_reference": 8.019556, "distance_from_trend": -0.024884, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.476245, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.343649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119099, "excess_performance": -0.273934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.489123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 740300, "relative_activity": 1.94547, "balance": 1.489123, "dry_up": 1.592405, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069108, "annualized_volatility": 0.291103, "from_high_reference": -0.306097, "from_low_reference": 0.146628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.019556, "fair_value_reference": 8.476245, "structural_low": 6.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 7.374, 7.335818, 7.489525, 7.765901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.19, "volume": 568000, "typical_volume": 376345.0, "trend": 8.170793, "fair_value": 8.491554, "relative_strength": -32.893679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.961956, "energy": 26.315054, "activity_lines": [ 7.346, 7.312, 7.440035, 7.696849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.77, "volume": 513800, "typical_volume": 376625.0, "trend": 8.092035, "fair_value": 8.483537, "relative_strength": -27.471598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.912257, "energy": 17.64, "activity_lines": [ 7.514, 7.398909, 7.451465, 7.670991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.82, "volume": 740300, "typical_volume": 380525.0, "trend": 8.019556, "fair_value": 8.476245, "relative_strength": -27.343649, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.949981, "energy": 11.224241, "activity_lines": [ 7.636, 7.485455, 7.472881, 7.65344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }