{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8cc2848c-32f2-4f40-b832-570bca534fad",
    "symbol": "QCE",
    "name": "Mackenzie Canadian Large Cap Equity Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 93.334,
    "architecture_energy": 91.733,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.296,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.049,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.73,
        "rotation_up": 82.45,
        "upward_expansion": 97.23,
        "deceleration": 41.09,
        "rotation_down": 15.64,
        "downward_expansion": 19.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        214.087334,
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        208.53118,
        205.183751
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 216.889999,
    "trend_reference": 201.06562,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.078703,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 153.452931,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413398,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.830425,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.140378,
    "excess_performance": 0.019957,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078703,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044547,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.413398,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039289,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008304,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015369,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.140378,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 12.357143,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1000,
      "relative_activity": 0.555556,
      "balance": 12.357143,
      "dry_up": 0.861111,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010187,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.104333,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002988,
      "from_low_reference": 0.318088
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 201.06562,
      "fair_value_reference": 153.452931,
      "structural_low": 186.791,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 47,
        "median_return": 0.014445,
        "positive_rate": 0.680851,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.680851,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002668,
        "regime_survival": 0.787234,
        "best_return": 0.058639,
        "worst_return": -0.090757,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.026678,
        "positive_rate": 0.764706,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.764706,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004267,
        "regime_survival": 0.764706,
        "best_return": 0.13705,
        "worst_return": -0.064457,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.079065,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005747,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.189199,
        "worst_return": -0.078872,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.140536,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03714,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.303978,
        "worst_return": -0.020125,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2023-12-01",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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      },
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 147.731625,
        "relative_strength": 0.893635,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 196.206741,
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        "relative_strength": 1.168595,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.166999,
        "energy": 91.6961,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 209.050003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2620.0,
        "trend": 197.003233,
        "fair_value": 150.248881,
        "relative_strength": 0.446555,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 76.584211,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 1600,
        "typical_volume": 2565.0,
        "trend": 197.841841,
        "fair_value": 150.883377,
        "relative_strength": 1.43038,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.276261,
        "energy": 94.989835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 212.470001,
        "volume": 2800,
        "typical_volume": 2535.0,
        "trend": 198.646206,
        "fair_value": 151.513059,
        "relative_strength": 1.981846,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.163275,
        "energy": 95.073885,
        "activity_lines": [
          210.811334,
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          205.187176,
          202.330374
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 212.220001,
        "volume": 1400,
        "typical_volume": 2440.0,
        "trend": 199.417282,
        "fair_value": 152.140844,
        "relative_strength": 1.532422,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.434001,
        "energy": 91.93132,
        "activity_lines": [
          211.501334,
          209.869652,
          206.204761,
          203.206103
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 213.440002,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 2040.0,
        "trend": 200.259183,
        "fair_value": 152.791258,
        "relative_strength": 2.488232,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.098726,
        "energy": 90.893362,
        "activity_lines": [
          212.369335,
          210.793532,
          207.254612,
          204.110795
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 216.889999,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 1800.0,
        "trend": 201.06562,
        "fair_value": 153.452931,
        "relative_strength": 0.830425,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.333587,
        "energy": 91.732638,
        "activity_lines": [
          214.087334,
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          205.183751
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}